Capital controls in the US?

In a recent Financial Times op-ed, Michael Pettis argued that the US should impose capital controls. In his view, the traditional view according to which capital inflows necessarily lower domestic interest rates and spur productive investment is based on a misunderstanding of how capital flows affect modern economies. This might have been true for rapidly growing developing economies with high investment needs and limited domestic savings, where foreign capital truly relieved a saving constraint. However, since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, modern financial systems can expand credit largely unconstrained. In this environment, capital inflows into advanced economies like the US, do not primarily finance new, productive investments.

In the modern context, capital inflows often lead to an increase in household or fiscal debt. Policymakers use this credit growth to sustain domestic demand and prevent recessions that would otherwise be caused by the leakage of demand abroad due to trade deficits. This is a "beggar thy neighbour" dynamic -- a term coined by Joan Robinson, and the reason she appears in the FT piece, even though she was referring to competitive depreciation and trade restrictions, not capital flows -- where trade deficits are caused by shifts in spending to foreign goods, forcing domestic businesses to reduce output. Further, this reliance on rising household or fiscal debt to absorb foreign capital inflows and the resulting trade deficits is unsustainable in the long run. It leads to rising debt levels and distorted economic structures. He concludes that restricting capital inflows would directly address the problem of aligning a country's external position with its domestic needs.

There are many problems with these views. On a theoretical level, he does suggest, as Vicky Chick in a paper that Lance Taylor liked and used in his courses, in the earlier period savings was necessary for investment. Essentially Say's Law. That is certainly not the case. Even in the 19th century, with less developed financial markets, banks had the ability to create credit, and savings (a flow) did not finance investment. Also, interest rates do not depend on the capital flows and the available funds, and are essentially an exogenous variable controlled to a great extent by the monetary authority (that was true in the past too).

More importantly, it is unclear that the external situation of the US, indebted in its own currency is unsustainable. What is the problem that this would be solving? There is no fiscal problem either, irrespective of the downgrade of US debt by Moody's recently (Standard & Poor's and Fitch had done it years ago). In fact, capital controls would affect the international role of the dollar and would be a major misstep, since it would directly affect the ability of foreigners to use dollars, and restrict its use in international financial markets. Not that this would have any chance of happening with Bessent, a Wall Street operator, as Treasury Secretary.

Private debt (not public) is considerably more dangerous than public debt, since when the government gets indebted, if it uses the money to promote growth, it directly affects its ability to pay back the debt, since its revenue is tied to the level of economic activity. That is why public debt tends to fall not by cutting spending and promoting adjustment and reducing the amount of debt, but by promoting growth and reducing the relevance of debt with respect to ability to repay. So, Pettis is not incorrect in noting that the US has depended more on private debt, which is riskier. But capital controls would do little to limit this dynamic. Policies that expand the remuneration (wages) of the people at the bottom (i.e. better income distribution) and that are more lenient with private debtors would have better results.

Regulation of financial markets too should play a role. In particular, the predatory lending practices that are still rampant in the US more than a decade and half after the 2008-9 financial crisis. But in all fairness, if there is something the US can do to grow faster and avoid financial problems, it would simply be more spending (perhaps a mix of infrastructure and social transfers) and lower interest rates. One can hope.

A Bipartisan Neoliberal Offensive

By David Fields

Donald Trump’s fascist political ascent is not a mere historical anomaly or an unpredictable deviation from the norm. On the contrary, it represents a predictable and deeply entrenched political outcome, that is, the logical, albeit unsettling, culmination of a long-standing bipartisan reorganization of the United States political economy. This restructuring can be understood as a coherent and potent neoliberal project, meticulously designed to reorder American capitalism around the central tenets of maximizing corporate power and diminishing the role of the state in social welfare.

In pursuit of these objectives, this neoliberal project systematically dismantled the post-World War II social contract, characterized by relatively strong labor unions, progressive taxation, and the expansion of moderate social safety nets. It aimed to balance capitalist accumulation with, to a certain extent, social equity and economic security for the working class. Over time this foundational agreement was incrementally eroded. Policies favoring deregulation, privatization, free trade agreements, and supply-side economics dogma became paramount, leading to a significant redistribution of wealth upwards for the few and stagnant wages for the many. This long-term trend of prioritizing corporate interests over collective well-being created fertile ground for populist discontent and the rise of figures who, like Trump, could tap into widespread frustration with the established political and economic order.

Read rest here. 

 

Conversation (in Spanish) about Trump's Tariffs at Central Económica from UNAL-Colombia

Listen to the audio.

Essentially a conversation about what are the real risks, at least so far. 

Surplus approach, Historical Materialism, and precapitalist economies:

New Paper by Sergio Cesaratto on a topic closely related to what he has discussed here before. From the abstract:

In the classical economists’ surplus approach retrieved by Sraffa (1951; 1960) and Garegnani ([1960] 2024), institutions regulate the  material  basis  of  society  and,  in  particular,  the  extraction and distribution  of  the  social  surplus.  In  this  regard,  classical theory  provides  a  material  anchor,  alternative  to  neoclassical New Institutional Economics, to anthropological, archaeological and  historical  studies  of  precapitalist  economies.  Expunged  of any teleological meaning, Marx’s Historical Materialism (HM) is a   natural   source   of   inspiration   for   this   interdisciplinary perspective. The nature and dynamics of Marx’s notion of modes of  production  (MOP)  are  not,  however,  firmly  defined  and  have been  the  object  of  over-complicated  doctrinal  disputes  among Marxists. Since I am unable to provide a comprehensive overview of these debates, I will limit myself to a few aspects that seem to me to be most central or that best convey the issue. The question of MOP dynamics is the most relevant and complex. All in all, the most  mature  Marx  leaves  us  a  very  flexible  reading  of  HM  as  a method of connecting economic, social, and institutional history that can be broadly shared by non-Marxists.

Read the rest here.