Showing posts with label Current Account. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Current Account. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

US Net International Investment Position

Nothing much changed since I posted on this a couple of years ago. The U.S. net international investment position at the end of the first quarter of 2016 was −$7.5 trillion, which corresponds to about 40% of GDP, higher than two years ago. But no real problem in my view
Note that this is the sort of number that economists show when they want to suggest a possible run on the dollar, and the demise of its role as a reserve currency. The last report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is available here.

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Not sustainable: India’s trade and current account deficits


New paper by Suranjana Nabar-Bhaduri published by PERI. From the abstract:
India’s trade balance and current account have shown persistent deficits for a major part of its post-independence period. Since the mid-2000s, trade deficits have increased perilously, with a sharp rise in both oil and non-oil imports. This has increased the magnitude of the current account deficit, as net earnings from services and remittances have been insufficient to offset the trade deficits. India has relied on remittances, services exports and capital inflows to finance these deficits. This paper argues that all three sources entail elements of fragility. The recent global economic slowdown, economic recession in Europe, slow economic recovery and low growth forecasts for the US and Europe, and the potential Dutch disease effects of remittances raise questions on whether services exports and remittances can continue to generate sufficient earnings to sustain these deficits, especially if they continue to increase. Relying on remittances and capital inflows for financing ever-rising trade deficits also carry risks of financial fragility, especially with short-term capital inflows becoming more prominent in the Indian economy. Policy efforts aimed at improving the competitiveness of merchandise exports to reduce the magnitude and persistence of these deficits seem to be the need of the hour.
Read rest here.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

The US Net International Investment Position (IIP)

The graph below shows the Net International Investment Position (IIP) as a share of GDP for the US, since 1976. The last report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is available here. Note that by the first quarter of the year the IIP corresponded to US$ 5.5 trillion, or slightly more than 30% of GDP.
The IIP position has been negative since the late 1980s, which is the reason why economists argue that the US is a debtor country. The negative position follows as a result of the persistent current account (CA) deficits, which imply that foreigners accumulate dollars and dollar denominated assets. A negative IIP means that foreigners have more financial claims on residents than vice versa, and is seen often as a problem for most countries.

The conventional view also suggests that CA deficits are not dangerous if they finance domestic investment, which leads to growth, and presumably higher exports, even though this is often not explained by mainstream authors that tend to forget that most countries borrow in foreign currency. In this case, in which the CA deficits allow for higher exports in the future, a negative IIP is seen as sustainable. On the other hand, if the CA is used to finance consumption, then the negative IIP would be unsustainable. Many analysts think that the US IIP is not sustainable and from time to time someone suggests that a run of the dollar is possible. For example, Paul Krugman famously predicted that a run on the dollar would eventually occur, what he termed a 'Wile E. Coyote moment,' in which agents holding dollars would finally get that the floor was gone, and the dollar would depreciate sharply (this was before the Lehman's collapse and the run for dollar denominated assets, and the appreciation of the dollar; subsequently the gradual depreciation of the dollar returned, but so far no Wile E. Coyote moment).

Some mainstream authors are also puzzled by the fact the US, in spite of having persistent CA deficits and a large and negative IIP, has consistently had a positive net investment income position. In other words, interest and profits resulting from holding foreign assets has exceeded the payments of income to owners of US assets. Hausmann and Sturzenegger argued creatively (let's call it that) that the reason for this 'paradox' is that the CA does not measure well the net international investment position, since insurance and liquidity services go unaccounted. Their adjusted measure to add those invisible services, which they refer to as 'dark matter'* would explain the paradox, and why the US IIP is sustainable after all.

Note, however, that once one takes into account that the US holds the reserve/vehicle currency much of the discussion about the dangers of the CA deficits, the sustainability of IIP and the paradox of the positive net investment income position sort of vanishes. US debts are in dollars, which implies that there is no possibility of default in a fiat system. Chartalism holds in the open economy too.

The US does not need to export to obtain dollars, and how it uses the accumulation of financial claims on the US by foreigners is not crucial for sustainability. Holding the key currency does NOT come without consequences, but those are not the ones often suggested by the mainstream. Certainly given US policy choices there has been a loss of industrial jobs in the Rust Belt, yet as noted in another post, not with a significant loss in terms of technological advantage for US corporations. The consequence, thus, of the hegemonic position of the dollar, together with other policy choices (e.g. financial deregulation, lower taxes for the wealthy, deregulation of labor markets, etc.) has been one that affected the balance between labor and capital domestically.

Also, there is no need for dark matter, or other neologisms, to understand why the US has positive net investment income flows. By definition, the key currency is the risk free asset, and hence investments denominated in other currencies must pay a risk premium. Yes, sure BOP accounts are imperfect, like NIPA or any other measure of the economy. But there is no need to revamp the BOP accounts to get that the US CA deficit and the negative IIP are not really unsustainable.

* Hausmann has a flair for coining terms for ideas or problems that were well known by heterodox authors, and to incorporate them inconspicuously in the mainstream discourse. He refers to the notion that developing countries cannot borrow long term in their own currency as "the original sin." Note that the original sin is exactly the notion suggested by Prebisch, Kaldor, Thirlwall and others, that argue that since these countries cannot borrow internationally, and must pay with exports in the long run, then the CA becomes a constraint for economic growth.

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

CEPR: Latin American Growth in the 21st Century - The 'Commodities Boom' That Wasn't


By David Rosnick and Mark Weisbrot

This paper looks at whether the data support such a conclusion. It finds that there is no statistically significant relationship between the increase in the terms of trade (TOT) for Latin American countries and their GDP growth. There is, however, a positive relationship between the TOT increase and an improvement in the current account balance. It may be that this allowed countries to avoid balance of payments crises or constraints.

Read rest here.