Showing posts with label Hirschman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hirschman. Show all posts

Monday, February 13, 2017

Heterodox, Trespasser, Malthusian and other economist labels

I discussed long ago what it means to be heterodox in economics. Bob Kuttner, who I once saw giving a talk at the New School (in the 1990s), a very sharp journalist that knows quite a bit about economics, sings the praises of Dani Rodrik as an heterodox economist. I discussed Rodrik before, in particular his notion that there is only one economics (neoclassical, of course as in the title of his book One Economics, Many Recipes). And he is not subtle about it either. As I noted back then, in his Has Globalization Gone Too Far, that in spite of Kuttner's review is not particularly critical and is indeed mildly for globalization, Rodrik says that: “when I mention ‘economists’ here, I am, of course, referring to mainstream economics, as represented by neoclassical economists (of which I count myself as one).”

Rodrik is, or was a few years ago at least, in what Colander, Holt and Rosser refer to as the cutting edge of the profession (my views on that here), which is to say he is heterodox in the same way that Joe Stiglitz or Paul Krugman are heterodox. They are willing to suggest that some imperfections make the laissez-faire dream of the most fundamentalist neoclassical authors somewhat overstated. But as much as Krugman and Stiglitz accept the conventional macro model, with the natural rate hypothesis, the same is true for Rodrik, which essentially accepts the basic Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson trade model (for a critique go here). He is a moderate neoclassical economist; a potty trained one if you will, but certainly not heterodox.

Don't get me wrong, in many policy issues Rodrik, like Krugman and Stiglitz, is on the right side, even if he gets there in ways that I would suggest are contradictory, and can be seen as an ally of heterodox economists on these policy issues. But I think it is a bit much to call him a critic of globalization, in particular because it underplays the role of true critics, that often paid a steep professional price, in terms of prestige and money, to defend their views. For example, his critique of the Washington Consensus was that the policies (essentially austerity cum deregulation, trade liberalization and privatization, or what you would call neoliberal policies) were incomplete and more institutional reforms were needed to make them work. So Rodrik was basically playing the Douglas North New Institutional imperfection card (now used very effectively by Acemoglu, Robinson and co-authors). Summarizing his work I said back then:
"Rodrik (1999b) suggested that five types of institutions, defined as behavioral rules that govern the interaction between economic agents, are relevant to explain successful development experiences: property rights, regulatory institutions, institutions for macroeconomic stabilization, institutions for social insurance, and institutions for conflict management."
The problem, as I noticed back then, was that the institutions he was pushing for (note that property rights are in the original Williamson consensus decalogue) were more harmful than good. They reduced the ability to promote state intervention in the economy and the scope for industrial policy, they were geared for macro stability narrowly focused on price stability (he probably wouldn't disagree with the idea of the natural rate in macro), and even when he was for social insurance policies, didn't seem to notice that his macro policies would make more social spending almost by definition impossible.

I should say that I find it very apropos that Kuttner compares him with Albert Hirschman, and calls the latter one of Rodrik's heroes, even if I think Rodrik is a different kind of trespasser, not interested in interdisciplinarity per se, but in using economics concepts for insights into other social sciences. More like a social science imperialist (for my take on Hirschman's interdisciplinarity go here). Hirschman was a development economists that was against planning, and that thought that there was something relevant about Hayek's Road to Serfdom (a book that says that any intervention by the state ends up in a slippery slope towards fascism*; the same argument Reagan made about Medicare in the 1960s). Hirschman had a serious debate with Currie on the issue of planning, regarding the latter's World Bank mission to Colombia, and was generally seen as friendly critic of the mainstream (see Roger Sandilands views, which are, correctly I would add, very critical of Hirschman). Like Rodrik, Hirschman got hired by Harvard, which is hardly known for hiring controversial lefties that go against the grain, which he only left to the Institute of Advanced Studies because he was a terrible teacher. Also, like with Hirschman's contributions, many heterodox and progressive intellectuals tend to overplay the critical aspects of Rodrik's work.

In my view, the problem with the friendly critic, that accepts all of the main tenets of mainstream marginalism, without taking seriously the heterodox critiques of the internal logic of neoclassical economics, is that they end up validating some of this illogical ideas, and the foundation for the neoliberal policies people like Rodrik supposedly abhor.

On a slightly different note, and I guess once we are in the topic of who should be considered heterodox and who is a follower of Hirschman, here is another question of labels. Dietrich Vollrath comes out of the closet as a Malthusian. That's a bit funny. I know neoclassical economists, in particular, after Clark's A Farewell to Alms, have come to embrace the epithet, but in all fairness, for a reasonably educated person Malthusian is sort of an insult (btw, on my views on some of the mistakes with the ideas of demographic transitions and Malthusian traps see this).

* On this, Jeremy Adelman tells us in his biography of Hirschman that: "when he found a copy of Friedrich von Hayek’s recently published (in London, in March 1944) The Road to Serfdom in a Rome bookstore, a nerve was struck. 'Reading this book is very useful for someone like me who grew up in a ‘collectivist’ climate—it makes you rethink many things and has shown me in how many important points I have moved away from the beliefs I had when I was 18 years old.'" Those would be his more progressive, Marxist, convictions. Hirschman had lived in Germany, not the Soviet Union, by the way.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Where is the elasticity? (or more on devaluation and growth)


Since 2007 mainstream economists, and often some heterodox (or more precisely eclectic) authors, have suggested that the Argentine economy is on the verge of collapse (see for example my good friend Bresser-Pereira here or this). A typical argument made by both orthodox economists (some of which favored the Convertibility Plan of the 1990s) and the more unconventional is that real exchange rate (RER) appreciation is at the heart of the Argentine problems and the more recent lack of growth.

I have discussed this before here with respect to the so-called Sustainable and Stable Competitive Real Exchange Rate literature (see here). The argument for a SSCRER was put forward by Frenkel and Taylor in a well-known paper, but the notion has many defenders (see the good paper by Blecker and Razmi from Setterfield's essential book on growth), including more conventional authors like Rodrik. At the risk of being repetitive let me point out the pros and cons of the arguments for devaluation.

Depreciation protects local industry and leads to a boost to domestic production, and also, by leading to an increase in exports, reduces the external constraint of the economy. That would be the substitution effect associated to the change in the relative prices. Yet depreciation also (everything else constant) reduces wages, increases the profits of exporters, and leads (yes, the economy is wage-led) to a reduction in spending and lower levels of activity. In this case, a depreciation does help reduce your external constraint, but by leading to a contraction. The second effect, associated to an income effect, was well-known by heterodox authors, having been developed by Albert Hirschman and Carlos Diaz-Alejandro (for the Argentine case) and then formalized by Krugman and Taylor (see here; subscription required).

At the end of the day it is an empirical question. All the evidence seems to suggest, at least for the Argentine case (here paper by Fiorito and others in Spanish; but it seems to be more general, see here) that income effects tend to be larger than substitution effects, and hence one might be concerned about possible contractionary effects of a depreciation.

In the case of Argentina, it is clear that the expansion of the volume of exports goes hand in hand with the expansion of the world GDP (Figure below).
The relation between the real exchange rate and exports is less clear. As it is shown below after the large real depreciation in 2002, growth in the volume of exports goes hand in hand with significant appreciation.
No doubt defenders of depreciation will argue that the big depreciation in 2002 was essential for export growth afterwards (see Rapetti here who argues that "competitive RER was a key factor behind Argentina’s recovery and growth"). But if you put the depreciation in the wider macroeconomic context of 2002, and compare with the current one, you are bound to have second thoughts.

The depreciated nominal exchange rate in a context of high unemployment (around 22%) did not lead to inflationary pressures, since wage demands were subdued (and hence the nominal depreciation translated into a large real one). Second, spare capacity meant that the protection afforded by the real depreciation led to a huge expansion of domestic production, spurred by the expansion of domestic demand (higher real wages and expansion of fiscal spending, particularly in social programs). Exports actually don't seem to move much with the depreciation. There is no econometric evidence for large elasticity of exports with respect to the exchange rate, in the short or long-run (if someone has it please, please, pretty please with a cherry on top share it; it's been frustrating to have an argument with people that argue a point for which there is no known evidence).

Note that all the above mentioned conditions are not in place now. Unemployment is considerably lower (around 7% or so), and the expansion of real wages and government spending have slowed down (so much so, that in the last year the economy has stalled). So maybe we need less Frenkel and Taylor and more Krugman and Taylor to understand what is going on in Argentina right now.


Wednesday, December 12, 2012

More on Hirschman

Several obituaries of Hirschman have already popped up (see here, here, and here for example). Note that both Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution and Rajiv Sethi (who was my econometrics teacher I should note), the economic blogs, emphasize among the many contributions of Hirschman his book Exit, Voice and Loyalty (EVL), his work as a historian of economics (Tabarrok, in particular, praising The Passions and the Interests, PI), and his interdisciplinary work (Sethi, noting his crossing of boundaries of disciplines).

I tend to find exactly that those are the less appealing and more problematic characteristics of Hirschman as a scholar. His analysis of the history of ideas is based on the policy objectives rather than on the theoretical foundations of theories. Hence, classical political economy ideas are treated in terms of their laissez faire component, which would actually make them similar to a lot of the marginalist ideas of a century later.* Note that laissez faire in the period of the rising bourgeoisie is not akin to the same policy once that class is dominant.

Note also that a bourgeois economist like Ricardo could openly suggest that capital and labor had conflictive interests, in a way that only a few years later would be considered unacceptable. Marx, a radical critic of classical political economy, could maintain the core principles of Ricardian economics exactly because of that.

Also, EVL, which shows the breadth of Hirschman's intellectual interests, is a book that emphasizes interdisciplinarity in a way that the material economic preoccupations of agents and social groups are of secondary importance. Classical political economy was in many respects interdisciplinary, in particular because it shed light on the social conflicts inherent in the determination of income distribution.

In my view the more interesting contributions are associated to his early works, in particular his book National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (NPSFT), which showed that relationships of dependence and the counterpart, hegemonic power, can arise out of trade relations. For those that follow the aggressive trade policies pursued by developed countries pushing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and Bilateral Investement Treaties (BITs) this should not be a surprise. In this context, his analysis of power in NPSFT seems more akin to the preoccupation of the old classical political economists with economic power and social conflict that his analysis in EVL.

Hirschman also wrote one of the first papers, if not the first, showing the contractionary effects of depreciations, and was as a practitioner of development policies for a big push of public investment to kick start the process of industrialization. That agenda for industrialization of the periphery is still open, and his contributions (e.g. linkages) are still relevant. Those are the good things to be remembered for, in my view.

* Coherent with his perspective mainstream Tabarrok suggest reading McCloskey's Bourgeois Virtues together with PI. The idea is that capitalism is a cultural phenomenum, that is based on bourgeois values, in Weberian fashion. I have criticized this view in another post (see also Cesaratto's post).

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

2013 Leontief Prize

Wassily Leontief (1905-99)

Tufts University’s Global Development And Environment Institute announced today that it will award its 2013 Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought to Albert O. Hirschman and Frances Stewart. This year's award, titled "Development in Hard Times," recognizes the critical role played by these researchers in crossing disciplines to forge new theories and policies to promote international development. The ceremony and lectures will take place on March 7, 2013 at Tufts University’s Medford campus.

“Development economics is experiencing a deserved revival, as developing countries increasingly seek to define the appropriate role for the state in a global market economy that is suffering upheavals from politics, economics, and resource constraints,” says GDAE Co-director Neva Goodwin. “A serious return to development theory must start with the work of Albert Hirschman, one of the early leaders in the field. Frances Stewart’s practical and theoretical work on the challenges of modern development further advance such interdisciplinary approaches to international development.”

The Global Development And Environment Institute, which is jointly affiliated with Tufts’ Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, inaugurated its economics award in 2000 in memory of Nobel Prize-winning economist and Institute advisory board member Wassily Leontief, who had passed away the previous year. The Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought recognizes economists whose work, like that of the institute and Leontief himself, combines theoretical and empirical research to promote a more comprehensive understanding of social and environmental processes. The inaugural prizes were awarded in 2000 to John Kenneth Galbraith and Nobel Prize winner Amartya Sen.

2013 Awardees
Albert Hirschman needs no introduction to those in the field of development. He has been an eminent figure at Columbia, Yale, Harvard, and at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, with which he is currently affiliated. He is considered a pioneer in the field of political economy in developing countries, with a long history of work in Latin America. He has always seen development as a process of creating economy-wide benefits for all, and he understands deeply the nature of “unbalanced growth” and the importance of fostering industrialization and innovation. He has authored some of the most insightful works in the social sciences, straddling economics, psychology, and political theory. His key works include National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (University of California Press, 1980 edition), The Strategy of Economic Development (Yale University Press, 1958), Exit, Voice, and Loyalty (Harvard University Press, 1970), and The Passions and the Interests: Political Arguments for Capitalism before its Triumph (1977). In 2007, the Social Sciences Research Council established an annual award in his honor.

Frances Stewart is emeritus Professor of Development Economics at the University of Oxford and was director of Oxford's Department of International Development and the Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity (CRISE). Her 1977 book, Technology and Underdevelopment (Macmillan) presents a comprehensive approach to technology choice, challenging neo-classical assumptions. Adjustment with a Human Face (co-authored with Andrea Cornia and Richard Jolly), published in 1987 was highly influential in challenging IMF approaches to adjustment. She has worked on the Human Development Reports of the UNDP since the first Report, and in 2009 was awarded the Mahbub ul Haq prize for lifetime contributions to Human Development. Her long-term project on poverty compares four different approaches – monetary, capabilities, social exclusion, and participatory – from both a theoretical and a policy perspective. Most recently she introduced the concept of “horizontal inequalities” (i.e. inequalities in economic and political resources between culturally defined groups) and has shown how such inequalities constitute a major cause of conflict. Her 2008 book, Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: Understanding Group Conflict in Multiethnic Societies (Palgrave Macmillan) documents her rich interdisciplinary approach to development.

The Global Development And Environment Institute was founded in 1993 with the goal of promoting a better understanding of how societies can pursue their economic and community goals in an environmentally and socially sustainable manner. The Institute develops textbooks and course materials, published on paper and on its web site, that incorporate a broad understanding of social, financial and environmental sustainability. The Institute also carries out policy-relevant research on climate change, the role of the market in environmental policy, and globalization and sustainable development.

In addition to Amartya Sen and John Kenneth Galbraith, GDAE has awarded the Leontief Prize to Paul Streeten, Herman Daly, Alice Amsden, Dani Rodrik, Nancy Folbre, Robert Frank, Richard Nelson, Ha-Joon Chang, Samuel Bowles, Juliet Schor, Jomo Kwame Sundaram, Stephen DeCanio, José Antonio Ocampo, Robert Wade, Bina Agarwal, Daniel Kahneman, Martin Weitzman, Nicholas Stern, C. Peter Timmer, and Michael Lipton.

Learn more about the Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought and view a list of previous award recipients
Learn more about the Global Development and Environment Institute
Learn more about Leontief and Input-Output Analysis