Monday, May 20, 2024

Debt cycles and the long term crisis of neoliberalism

My talk at the IDEAS/PERI conference a few weeks ago. As I said there, I hate to be the optimist in the room, but I'm a bit more skeptical about the risks of a generalized sovereign debt crisis in the Global South. The two papers I cite are these (in their PERI Working Paper versions) two (one and two).

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More on the possibility and risks of a recession

So both the (inverted) yield curve and the Sahm rule indicate a recession. This together with two months of slower employment creation, and ...