Paul Davidson (1930-2024) and Post Keynesian Economics

Paper on Paul with Tom Palley and Jamie Galbraith published by ROKE. From the abstract:

"Paul Davidson was a critical figure in the preservation of John Maynard Keynes’s ideas, sticking with them when they were out of fashion. He was also key to the survival of the Post Keynesian school. Davidson endorsed Keynes’s liquidity preference theory of interest, and he emphasized fundamental uncertainty as a central feature of economic reality, essential to making sense of a monetary economy. His greatest legacy is the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, the intellectual home for a generation of Post Keynesian economists. Without his efforts, the heterodox economics community would be significantly smaller than it is now."

Full paper available here.

The Economist and the American Economy

It takes something for me to say that The Economist is probably right. Sure enough the cover of The Economist, which has led to many critiques, sarcastic comments, and plain mockery by some friends on the left, was a bit hyperbolic. But the main argument of the piece -- basically that the American economy did pretty well in the recovery from the Pandemic, and that the United States has done well when compared to other advanced economies, and better than it did in the last few recoveries, which is not the case with China, which still grows faster, but has slowed down -- is correct.

Regarding the recovery, it is clear that the US has outperformed most economies, and it is also true that to a great extent that is due to the fiscal packages from the Pandemic, including the Biden ones, that were derided by many, including many Dems, like Larry Summers (and inflation, which resulted from the supply chain problems, in the absence of significant conflict went down pretty fast).

 

Not only this was the first recovery that was NOT jobless in a while, as can be seen by the fact that real GDP went back to trend, it also puts in doubt the notion that there is some fundamental secular stagnation problem with the US economy.

There are, no doubt, structural issues, like increasing inequality, and an hegemonic challenge from China*, but no significant reason that dooms the economy to grow less in the long run. The lower growth was a result of policy decisions, not structural problems. As Steindl would have said, stagnation policies. Had Obama (and then Trump) pushed for a more robust fiscal expansion after the 2008/9 Great Recession as Christina Romer wanted (and contrary to what Larry Summers advocated) then the growth rate would have been higher, and perhaps even the deficits (as a share of GDP, with GDP growing faster) would have been smaller.

Trump's victory in 2016 is, to some extent, the result of that choice too (and not prosecuting the Wall Street crooks, in my view), and Kamala has failed to adopt a more populist tone during the campaign, which I hope does not end up leading to another turn to the far right. The limits to growth have been political, and the Dems have played a role in that. Paradoxically, Biden had moved to the left on that (his willingness to promote a more healthy fiscal expansion).

* On the exaggerated fears of the end of American hegemony, also very common on the left, I'll write later.

IMF surcharges

A long demand by progressive economists demanding the end of the surcharges that the IMF imposed on developing countries has had a positive outcome, with the executive board reducing them. The statement by Kristalina Georgieva can be read here. A strong effort on this by Joe Stiglitz, Martín Gúzman, Kevin Gallagher, Mark Weisbrot, to cite a few should be noted. I had recently signed the letter below favoring this policy.

"Dear International Monetary Fund Board of Directors,

This Friday October 11, 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to announce reforms to its policy on charges and especially surcharges, which levies extra fees on countries whose debts have surpassed certain size and time thresholds. We the undersigned urge the IMF to meaningfully reform its policies, especially on surcharges.

Research shows that IMF surcharges are procyclical and regressive, extracting higher lending rates and fees from countries during financial crises when they should be investing in their own recovery. For years, researchers and advocates have documented how the current surcharge policy prevents low and middle-income countries from regaining financial stability, including by piling on higher borrowing, and preventing access to international markets. Surcharges increase the total potential annual interest rate imposed by the IMF to almost 8%. Moreover, the arguments put forward in defense of the surcharges have shown to have little if any validity.

We are concerned by reports that the IMF is not considering significant reforms that would remedy the flaws inherent in its surcharge policy. We fear that the IMF is instead contemplating insufficient half-measures. Tinkering at the edges will not help ensure global stability. The IMF itself projects that the number of countries paying surcharges will keep increasing. Already, 675 million people live in low- and middle-income countries whose taxpayers are projected to pay the IMF roughly $2 billion just in surcharges every year for the next five years. Every one of those dollars is a dollar not spent on health, education, and the clean energy transition. If the IMF Board maintains its current system of charging the taxpayers of already struggling, indebted countries extra surcharge fees, which cushion its general reserves, its members cannot expect that we will perceive the Fund as the steward of global financial stability that it was founded to be and confidence and trust in the Fund will diminish."

For the list of signatories go here.