Policy-Constrained Growth: Government spending and economic recovery in Brazil during Lula's third term

By Ricardo Summa, Guilherme Haluska and Franklin Serrano

Despite headwinds from higher interest rates in the US and at home, the Brazilian economy is nevertheless emerging from a period of prolonged stagnation. After growing an average of 0.2 percent a year between 2015 and 2022, national growth averaged 3.3 percent annually during 2023–2024, the first two years of President Lula’s third term. Though quite modest in comparison to the massive social needs of a developing country, this is still better than expected.1 Part of Brazil’s recent positive performance has been due to growing exports, to be sure. But the bulk of Brazil’s current economic growth stems from a cause the government itself has been reluctant to recognize: expansionary fiscal policy, which has generated sufficient demand to counteract these forces of contraction.

Read rest here. 

Two Transitions in Brazil: Dilemmas of a Neoliberal Democracy

By Alfredo Saad Filho

The mass movements starting in June 2013 were the largest and most significant protests in Brazil in a generation, and they have shaken up the country's political system. Their explosive growth, size and extraordinary reach caught everyone – the left, the right, and the government – by surprise. This article examines these movements in light of the achievements and shortcomings of the democratic transition, in the mid-1980s, and the experience of the federal administrations led by the Workers’ Party since 2003.

Read the rest here.

PS: If you read in Portuguese, an alternative explanation of the protests, by Marcos Nobre, is available here.