Friday, September 2, 2016

151,000 jobs created last month

Jobs numbers out today. Employment increased by 151,000 in August, and the unemployment rate is still at 4.9% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. This suggests that the slow recovery continues, and that to hike the rate of interest as it seems Janet Yellen suggested last week at Jackson Hole would be a mistake. By the way, Bill Gross, which sometimes sounds reasonable on spending and the effects of fiscal policy (or did in the past) suggested as an innovative solution the need for hiking rates twice before the end of the year. That signals, I think, what the market want, namely higher remuneration. But it would be a terrible idea. Even if the conventional story, best explained by John Williams from the San Francisco Fed, is deeply flawed. That is, the notion that the natural rate of interest (yeah, that concept) is now very low.

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