Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Even The Economist is against raising the interest rate


In the last issue, The Economist suggests that the Fed should not be concerned too much with inflation, and that they should not raise the interest rate for now. They say: "Weak wage growth suggests that there is still lots of slack in the labour market. Underemployment, which includes workers who are part-time but want a full-time job, and discouraged workers who might be tempted back into the labour force, stands at just over 10%, higher than before the crisis. This measure probably has further to fall before wage growth picks up. The Fed may also be underestimating how far unemployment can fall without stoking inflation." Instead of raising it now, Yellen should wait until the December meeting. In their words: "A rate rise would cause a big market reaction, because it is not fully expected. Markets place roughly a one-third probability on it happening. Were Ms Yellen to hold off, she would have time to lay the groundwork for a more predictable rise in December."

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