More on Unemployment: "Missing Workers"

 

The official US unemployment rate significantly underestimates the weakness of available job opportunities. This is due to the existence of a large pool of “missing workers” (also termed 'discouraged workers' in the literature)—potential workers who, because of weak job opportunities, are neither employed nor actively seeking a job.

EPI's “missing worker” estimates:

Total missing workers as of September 2013: 5,190,000

	Actual unemployment rate	Unemployment rate if missing workers were looking for work
Jan-2006	4.7%	5.1%
Feb-2006	4.8%	4.9%
Mar-2006	4.7%	4.8%
Apr-2006	4.7%	4.9%
May-2006	4.6%	4.8%
Jun-2006	4.6%	4.7%
Jul-2006	4.7%	4.8%
Aug-2006	4.7%	4.6%
Sep-2006	4.5%	4.5%
Oct-2006	4.4%	4.4%
Nov-2006	4.5%	4.4%
Dec-2006	4.4%	4.1%
Jan-2007	4.6%	4.3%
Feb-2007	4.5%	4.3%
Mar-2007	4.4%	4.2%
Apr-2007	4.5%	4.8%
May-2007	4.4%	4.7%
Jun-2007	4.6%	4.7%
Jul-2007	4.7%	4.8%
Aug-2007	4.6%	5.0%
Sep-2007	4.7%	4.8%
Oct-2007	4.7%	5.1%
Nov-2007	4.7%	4.7%
Dec-2007	5.0%	5.0%
Jan-2008	5.0%	4.7%
Feb-2008	4.9%	4.9%
Mar-2008	5.1%	5.0%
Apr-2008	5.0%	5.1%
May-2008	5.4%	5.3%
Jun-2008	5.6%	5.5%
Jul-2008	5.8%	5.6%
Aug-2008	6.1%	5.9%
Sep-2008	6.1%	6.1%
Oct-2008	6.5%	6.4%
Nov-2008	6.8%	6.9%
Dec-2008	7.3%	7.4%
Jan-2009	7.8%	8.1%
Feb-2009	8.3%	8.6%
Mar-2009	8.7%	9.2%
Apr-2009	9.0%	9.3%
May-2009	9.4%	9.6%
Jun-2009	9.5%	9.7%
Jul-2009	9.5%	9.9%
Aug-2009	9.6%	10.2%
Sep-2009	9.8%	10.8%
Oct-2009	10.0%	11.2%
Nov-2009	9.9%	11.0%
Dec-2009	9.9%	11.4%
Jan-2010	9.8%	11.2%
Feb-2010	9.8%	11.2%
Mar-2010	9.9%	11.1%
Apr-2010	9.9%	10.8%
May-2010	9.6%	10.8%
Jun-2010	9.4%	10.9%
Jul-2010	9.5%	11.1%
Aug-2010	9.5%	11.0%
Sep-2010	9.5%	11.1%
Oct-2010	9.5%	11.3%
Nov-2010	9.8%	11.5%
Dec-2010	9.3%	11.3%
Jan-2011	9.1%	11.2%
Feb-2011	9.0%	11.1%
Mar-2011	8.9%	11.0%
Apr-2011	9.0%	11.2%
May-2011	9.0%	11.1%
Jun-2011	9.1%	11.3%
Jul-2011	9.0%	11.4%
Aug-2011	9.0%	11.2%
Sep-2011	9.0%	11.0%
Oct-2011	8.9%	11.0%
Nov-2011	8.6%	10.8%
Dec-2011	8.5%	10.7%
Jan-2012	8.3%	10.6%
Feb-2012	8.3%	10.4%
Mar-2012	8.2%	10.4%
Apr-2012	8.1%	10.6%
May-2012	8.2%	10.3%
Jun-2012	8.2%	10.3%
Jul-2012	8.2%	10.6%
Aug-2012	8.1%	10.7%
Sep-2012	7.8%	10.2%
Oct-2012	7.9%	10.1%
Nov-2012	7.8%	10.2%
Dec-2012	7.8%	10.1%
Jan-2013	7.9%	10.3%
Feb-2013	7.7%	10.3%
Mar-2013	7.6%	10.4%
Apr-2013	7.5%	10.3%
May-2013	7.6%	10.2%
Jun-2013	7.6%	10.1%
Jul-2013	7.4%	10.2%
Aug-2013	7.3%	10.1%
Sep-2013	7.2%	10.2%

Source: EPI analysis of Mitra Toossi, “Labor Force Projections to 2016: More Workers in Their Golden Years,” Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Labor Review, November 2007; and Current Population Survey public data series

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