Heidi Shierholz: Still No Jobs for More Than 60 Percent of Job Seekers

By Heidi Shierholz

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that job openings increased by 60,000 in January, bringing the total number of job openings to 4.0 million. In January, the number of job seekers was 10.2 million (unemployment data are from the Current Population Survey). Thus, there were 10.2 million job seekers and only 4.0 million job openings, meaning that more than 60 percent of job seekers were not going to find a job in January no matter what they did. In a labor market with strong job opportunities, there would be roughly as many job openings as job seekers. We are not in a strong labor market. Furthermore, the 10.2 million unemployed workers understates how many job openings will be needed when a robust jobs recovery finally begins, due to the existence of 5.7 million would-be workers who are currently not in the labor market, but who would be if job opportunities were strong. Many of these “missing workers” will become job seekers when we enter a robust jobs recovery, so job openings will be needed for them, too.

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Cut Unemployment Benefits? A Bonehead Idea

By Heidi Shierholtz

New data released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that 13.9 percent of the workforce was unemployed at some point in 2012, much higher than the official 2012 unemployment rate of 8.1 percent. How can this be? Each month, the official unemployment rate provides the share of the labor force unemployed in that month. But this understates the number of people who are unemployed at some point over a longer period, since someone who is employed in one month may become unemployed the next, and vice versa. So the official annual unemployment rate—which is actually the average monthly unemployment rate for the year—is much lower than the share of the workforce that experienced unemployment at some point during the year.

Read the rest here.

Don't Believe The Hype!

 

The latest news is that the U.S. unemployment rate slipped to to a five-year low of 7 percent in November, apparently an encouraging sign for the American economy.

The US Labor Department notes that employers added 203,000 jobs, nearly matching October’s revised gain of 200,000; this supposed strengthening of the job market is likely to fuel speculation that the Fed may start to scale back bond purchases when it meets later this month (according to Mark Weisbrot, however, this would not necessarily be a good idea - see here)

Before we get swindled, let's look at some data; according to the Economic Policy Institute, millions of potential workers are still sidelined and if we were to count those who have fallen out of the labor force due to discouragement, the real picture is as follows:

• Total missing workers, October 2013: 5,660,000;
• Unemployment rate if missing workers were looking for work: 10.3%;
• Official unemployment rate: 7.0%.

For tables & charts: see here; for info on methodology: see here.

More on Unemployment: "Missing Workers"

 

The official US unemployment rate significantly underestimates the weakness of available job opportunities. This is due to the existence of a large pool of “missing workers” (also termed 'discouraged workers' in the literature)—potential workers who, because of weak job opportunities, are neither employed nor actively seeking a job.

EPI's “missing worker” estimates:

Total missing workers as of September 2013: 5,190,000

	Actual unemployment rate	Unemployment rate if missing workers were looking for work
Jan-2006	4.7%	5.1%
Feb-2006	4.8%	4.9%
Mar-2006	4.7%	4.8%
Apr-2006	4.7%	4.9%
May-2006	4.6%	4.8%
Jun-2006	4.6%	4.7%
Jul-2006	4.7%	4.8%
Aug-2006	4.7%	4.6%
Sep-2006	4.5%	4.5%
Oct-2006	4.4%	4.4%
Nov-2006	4.5%	4.4%
Dec-2006	4.4%	4.1%
Jan-2007	4.6%	4.3%
Feb-2007	4.5%	4.3%
Mar-2007	4.4%	4.2%
Apr-2007	4.5%	4.8%
May-2007	4.4%	4.7%
Jun-2007	4.6%	4.7%
Jul-2007	4.7%	4.8%
Aug-2007	4.6%	5.0%
Sep-2007	4.7%	4.8%
Oct-2007	4.7%	5.1%
Nov-2007	4.7%	4.7%
Dec-2007	5.0%	5.0%
Jan-2008	5.0%	4.7%
Feb-2008	4.9%	4.9%
Mar-2008	5.1%	5.0%
Apr-2008	5.0%	5.1%
May-2008	5.4%	5.3%
Jun-2008	5.6%	5.5%
Jul-2008	5.8%	5.6%
Aug-2008	6.1%	5.9%
Sep-2008	6.1%	6.1%
Oct-2008	6.5%	6.4%
Nov-2008	6.8%	6.9%
Dec-2008	7.3%	7.4%
Jan-2009	7.8%	8.1%
Feb-2009	8.3%	8.6%
Mar-2009	8.7%	9.2%
Apr-2009	9.0%	9.3%
May-2009	9.4%	9.6%
Jun-2009	9.5%	9.7%
Jul-2009	9.5%	9.9%
Aug-2009	9.6%	10.2%
Sep-2009	9.8%	10.8%
Oct-2009	10.0%	11.2%
Nov-2009	9.9%	11.0%
Dec-2009	9.9%	11.4%
Jan-2010	9.8%	11.2%
Feb-2010	9.8%	11.2%
Mar-2010	9.9%	11.1%
Apr-2010	9.9%	10.8%
May-2010	9.6%	10.8%
Jun-2010	9.4%	10.9%
Jul-2010	9.5%	11.1%
Aug-2010	9.5%	11.0%
Sep-2010	9.5%	11.1%
Oct-2010	9.5%	11.3%
Nov-2010	9.8%	11.5%
Dec-2010	9.3%	11.3%
Jan-2011	9.1%	11.2%
Feb-2011	9.0%	11.1%
Mar-2011	8.9%	11.0%
Apr-2011	9.0%	11.2%
May-2011	9.0%	11.1%
Jun-2011	9.1%	11.3%
Jul-2011	9.0%	11.4%
Aug-2011	9.0%	11.2%
Sep-2011	9.0%	11.0%
Oct-2011	8.9%	11.0%
Nov-2011	8.6%	10.8%
Dec-2011	8.5%	10.7%
Jan-2012	8.3%	10.6%
Feb-2012	8.3%	10.4%
Mar-2012	8.2%	10.4%
Apr-2012	8.1%	10.6%
May-2012	8.2%	10.3%
Jun-2012	8.2%	10.3%
Jul-2012	8.2%	10.6%
Aug-2012	8.1%	10.7%
Sep-2012	7.8%	10.2%
Oct-2012	7.9%	10.1%
Nov-2012	7.8%	10.2%
Dec-2012	7.8%	10.1%
Jan-2013	7.9%	10.3%
Feb-2013	7.7%	10.3%
Mar-2013	7.6%	10.4%
Apr-2013	7.5%	10.3%
May-2013	7.6%	10.2%
Jun-2013	7.6%	10.1%
Jul-2013	7.4%	10.2%
Aug-2013	7.3%	10.1%
Sep-2013	7.2%	10.2%

Source: EPI analysis of Mitra Toossi, “Labor Force Projections to 2016: More Workers in Their Golden Years,” Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Labor Review, November 2007; and Current Population Survey public data series

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