tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8595404115121834255.post2313839127463012038..comments2024-03-28T03:24:05.678-04:00Comments on NAKED KEYNESIANISM: Is Argentina on the verge of an external crisis?Matias Vernengohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09521604894748538215noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8595404115121834255.post-90944435893579700092014-01-29T11:41:11.159-05:002014-01-29T11:41:11.159-05:00Matías, very good post. The recent Argentinean pol...Matías, very good post. The recent Argentinean policy was something like an “heterodox neo-developmentalism”. A heterodox (leftist?) frenkelian approach to the economic situation. Eduardo Crespohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15208488988089085573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8595404115121834255.post-80313222587443411492013-12-30T10:55:46.768-05:002013-12-30T10:55:46.768-05:00Ok, red lights off. But what about the trend? Watc...Ok, red lights off. But what about the trend? Watch the "movie" from 2003 onwards and clouds in the horizon appear. With your graph, the CA seems pretty similar to some stories already told here (first peronism and the late 60´s)... do you think Kicillof will be able to scape from being the "new" Gómez Morales (orthodox turn) to become a renewed Krieger Vasena (heterodox stabilization)?<br />Besides, I agree with the need of a good old-fashioned ISI, but there is still time? The political dynamic has urgent aims; the (not) strategic industrial plan 2020, the (failed) BND II project, the (lack) of heavy investments in infrastructure, etc. aren´t speaking instead of a train that has already left the station?JCOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16920909440373527406noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8595404115121834255.post-2714250570179058822013-12-30T09:47:04.063-05:002013-12-30T09:47:04.063-05:00Hi Robert:
Yep, inflation is around 25%, and every...Hi Robert:<br />Yep, inflation is around 25%, and everybody knows that the official rate is too low. They should fix it. But the people that question the government policies more often than not ask for devaluation of the currency and fiscal adjustment (say Frenkel, for example). Yet, the evidence for the effect of devaluation on export growth (and hence some effect on the current account) is nil (price elasticities are low compared to income ones). On top inflation is in part the result of nominal depreciation and inertia. Fiscal adjustment, which has been actually in place, leads to lower growth (and that's why the current account has not exploded). So yeah there might be some reasonable criticism of the government, but not the one that comes from New Developmentalism types. Argentina needs fiscal expansion, and industrial policy directed towards good lod fashioned ISI.Matias Vernengohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09521604894748538215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8595404115121834255.post-742471242313382122013-12-29T20:46:50.798-05:002013-12-29T20:46:50.798-05:00So Matias, what's your take on all the critici...So Matias, what's your take on all the criticisms of Argentina's policies, the alleged understatement of inflation in the official statistics, etc.?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17227786020530000343noreply@blogger.com