tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8595404115121834255.post1678216030537099147..comments2024-03-28T03:24:05.678-04:00Comments on NAKED KEYNESIANISM: The Bank of Sweden gives the prize for the efficient market hypothesisMatias Vernengohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09521604894748538215noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8595404115121834255.post-69680557245887344582013-10-15T11:54:09.591-04:002013-10-15T11:54:09.591-04:00Well sure short term prices are difficult to predi...Well sure short term prices are difficult to predict. But they do not reflect all information or more importantly the fundamentals. Sometimes they reflect also imagined information, and crazy expectations. We obviously disagree on your last assertion.Matias Vernengohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09521604894748538215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8595404115121834255.post-50180648682532784812013-10-15T08:37:03.155-04:002013-10-15T08:37:03.155-04:00But those two statements are factually true. Stock...But those two statements are factually true. Stock prices are indeed difficult to predict in the short-run and quickly incorporate new information. That is a well-deserved prize if there is any.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8595404115121834255.post-34121835216653847982013-10-14T23:52:55.440-04:002013-10-14T23:52:55.440-04:00Didn't Keynes have something to say about thus...Didn't Keynes have something to say about thus in the treatise? I guess the honor is emblematic of blowing up economics. David Fieldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16368656243683642296noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8595404115121834255.post-66261765903387065052013-10-14T12:40:56.498-04:002013-10-14T12:40:56.498-04:00Yes, but Fama got it because he and his "coll...Yes, but Fama got it because he and his "collaborators demonstrated that stock prices are extremely difficult to predict in the short run, and that new information is very quickly incorporated into prices." In others words, for the evidence EMH.Matias Vernengohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09521604894748538215noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8595404115121834255.post-86234994004275972812013-10-14T12:14:59.345-04:002013-10-14T12:14:59.345-04:00The prize is "for their empirical analysis of...The prize is "for their empirical analysis of asset prices" so not for EMH as such. Tyler cowen got two out of three for his 2012 predictions - a year late: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/10/handicapping-the-2012-nobel.html<br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com